Summary

Summary Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union provides for an EU Member State to leave the EU with or without a withdrawal agreement or ‘deal’. The EU and UK aimed to reach agreement by October 2018 on the UK’s terms of withdrawal and on the framework for future relations. Avoiding a hard border […]

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How Could No Deal Happen

Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union (TEU) provides for an EU Member State to leave the EU with or without a withdrawal agreement – or ‘deal’ – within a two-year timeframe starting from the formal notification of withdrawal by the leaving State. The two-year negotiating period can be extended if the other EU […]

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Preparations for No Deal

2.1 UK Government preparations The return of “no deal is better than a bad deal” In her Lancaster House speech in January 2017 the Prime Minister, Theresa May, was “clear that no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal for Britain”. By the time of her Florence speech in September 2017, she firmly […]

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Constitutional Implications in UK

3.1 Parliament’s role in the absence of a deal The European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 (EUWA) set out a process to give Parliament a say in the event that the Government either does not reach an exit deal with the EU’s negotiators, or if a deal is then rejected by the House of Commons.63 The […]

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Governance

The European Union involves complex governance processes, as set out below. In the event of no deal, the UK will be outside those processes and there will be no agreement on how future relations between the UK and the EU should be managed, including how disputes should be resolved. In order to appreciate the implications […]

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Economic Impact

Economic impact The economic impact of the UK leaving the EU with no deal – without a withdrawal agreement, transition period, framework for a future trade deal or ‘mini-deals’ in certain areas – is difficult to pinpoint with certainty, not least because there is no relevant precedent for a major developed economy leaving a large […]

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Trade

Trade The UK is currently party to over a thousand international agreements with third countries as a member of the EU. These cover trade, regulatory and policy co-operation in a range of areas, including fisheries, agriculture, the nuclear sector and transport (including aviation agreements). How many of these are pertinent to the UK is as […]

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Customs

7.1 Increased customs controls The effects of ‘no deal’ are expected to be most tangible at the UK border. At the moment of leaving the EU customs union without a deal, the border between the UK and the EU would become a customs border. This will mean increased customs controls, potentially involving increased costs and […]

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Northern Ireland and Irish Border

Northern Ireland and the Irish border Many of the possible effects of ‘no deal’ on the Irish border and trade with Ireland are the same as those that would arise from UK – EU trade in general and at other ports/entry points for goods traffic. But there are two unique characteristics that make the Irish […]

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Free Movement and Personal Issues

Free movement of people, healthcare, social security and pensions A significant number of ‘citizens’ rights’ will be affected by Brexit. The primary one is the free movement of persons’ rights, whereby currently any EU national can work in, live in or provide services in any EU Member State, providing they meet the conditions set out […]

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Food and Farming

10.1 Overview The National Farmers’ Union (NFU) has said that a no deal outcome is the “worst possible one” for the farming industry.392 The Food and Drink Federation (FDF) has called no deal a “grisly prospect”.393 In a no deal scenario for agriculture, trading arrangements, i.e. tariffs and standards, are the main issue. No deal […]

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Fisheries

Fisheries Following Brexit, the UK will no longer be part of the EU Commons Fisheries Policy (CFP). It will become an independent coastal state and will be fully responsible for managing fisheries in the UK’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of 200 miles. This will include setting total allowable catches (TACs), distributing quotas and determining who […]

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Energy

Energy Although Member States remain ultimately responsible for the energy supply to their citizens and for deciding on the most appropriate energy mix, the UK and EU energy sectors are integrated through trade, EU legislation, the interconnection of energy supply and nuclear cooperation (under the Treaty establishing the European Atomic Energy Community/Euratom). Since the mid-1990s, […]

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Transport

Transport Much of the uncertainty around a no-deal Brexit and transport relates to the impact it may have on the continuity of air travel and on road haulage and delays at UK ports. The Government believes a no-deal scenario could be managed in an “orderly” fashion and on 23 August 2018 the Department for Exiting […]

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Higher Education Science & Research

Access to research funding and Erasmus+ Research funding The UK currently does disproportionately well in securing EU research funding and UK Universities are the top performers in receiving EU funds based on scientific excellence.574 Recent figures show that UK Universities receive over £836 million in research grants and contracts from EU sources, representing more than […]

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Internal Security

Internal security The UK currently participates in approximately 40 EU measures that aim to support and enhance internal security and police and judicial cooperation in criminal matters. Measures identified as being of particular significance include: The European Arrest Warrant (EAW); Access to databases, including the Second Generation Schengen Information System (SIS II); European Criminal Records […]

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External Relations

16.1 EFTA separation agreements On 20 December 2018, the Government announced it had reached agreement with the three EFTA EEA countries to address separation issues following Brexit, including protecting the rights of UK citizens living in these countries and citizens of these countries living in the UK, as well as an agreement with Switzerland covering […]

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No Deal Planning in EU 27

Austria The Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz said in 2018 he would rather extend negotiations than surrender to a hard Brexit if a deal on the Irish border was not agreed.697 According to Bloomberg (19 July 2018), Austria did not anticipate customs problems “because the current WTO regime could handle shipments to and from the U.K”. […]

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